9. The potential benefit of the use of seasonal forecast during the agricultural economic year 2019-2020 in Bulgaria

Author: Ilian Gospodinov, Valentin Kazandjiev, Veska Georgieva


Seasonal forecasting gained ground in the last decades by building up knowledge on the processes staying behind the climate variability at the seasonal time scale, constructing ever more sophisticated general circulation models and ensemble prediction systems and thus enhancing forecast skill. The seasonal forecast is a climate forecast and is therefore probabilistic in nature. The predictability of the atmospheric circulation at the seasonal scale is limited in the middle latitudes, where Europe and Bulgaria are situated, by its chaotic nature. The current standard is to give forecast of the potential anomalies of the mean seasonal temperature and the seasonal amount of precipitation. The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Bulgaria has been issuing operationally seasonal forecast for the country since 2005. The goal of this work is to discuss the seasonal forecast for the last agricultural year 2019-2020. The year was characterized by its drought conditions especially in Eastern Bulgaria. This work would show the extent to which it was successfully predicted and how the seasonal forecast could have been used for decision making. The use of agrometeorological indices for the analysis of the skill of the seasonal forecast has been shown.

Keywords: seasonal forecast, active temperature sum, precipitation sum, anomaly, vegetation period