Abstract
When modeling the prognostic changes in the temperature regime over the territory of Ukraine, the data of the research project for modeling the regional climate and assessing the consequences of its change (CORDEX) were used. The climate projection structure is based on a series of global climatic models (GCM) developed within the framework of CMIP5 project. The influence of the temperature factors on passing the phenological phases and oats yield in the South of Ukraine, implementing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios and comparing them with the long-term data is analyzed. As a result of the analysis of the changes in the temperature regime it was revealed that it will be warming the plants vegetation period. The probable change in the oats yield in the southern part of Ukraine under the conditions of climate change using the crop formation model was considered. It is assumed that by 2050 the timing of sowing and germinating the seedlings will be shifted to an earlier date, and the oats yield will increase by 1.26-1.32 times.
Keywords: climate change, modeling, agroclimatic resources, vegetation period, yield