Abstract
Animal husbandry represents a cornerstone of agriculture in the Republic of Armenia, providing the population with vital high-quality food products and supplying the processing industry with essential raw materials. Despite the sector’s critical importance for national food security, it faces significant challenges in feed production that constrain competitiveness and sustainable development. Utilising 13-year time-series data (2011-2023) from Armenia’s Statistical Committee, this study conducts cost structure analysis and employs two simple linear regression (SLR) models to examine relationships between cattle population, fodder crop sowing areas, and beef prices. Standardised regression coefficients (β) were calculated to ensure comparability across different measurement units. Results reveal that feed costs constitute 76.4% of total cattle production costs—substantially exceeding previously reported figures (47%) and international benchmarks (50-60%)—thereby creating significant competitive disadvantages. Regression analysis demonstrates a strong positive correlation between fodder crop areas and cattle population (R = 0.90, R² = 0.82, p < 0.00002), with each hectare increase associated with five additional cattle. Conversely, a strong negative correlation (R = -0.88, R² = 0.77, p < 0.00008) between beef prices and herd size indicates that price increases incentivise liquidation instead of herd expansion. These findings demonstrate that inadequate fodder supply creates structural inefficiencies limiting sectoral growth. To address these constraints, this study proposes two systemic interventions: developing a National Concept for Feed Production Development and implementing a cluster model incorporating an unprecedented feed producers’ association to facilitate cooperation, technology adoption, and market access, ultimately enhancing the competitiveness of Armenia’s livestock sector.
Keywords: fodder production, Association of fodder producers, cluster, national concept, regression, analysis