Abstract
This study examines the climatic and structural determinants of cereal yield dynamics in Bulgaria by applying a regional dynamic panel model of the Arellano–Bond generalised method of moments (GMM) type to a balanced dataset covering 28 regions over the period 2015–2022. The analysis focuses on wheat, barley, and maize and evaluates two core hypotheses: H01 (climatic hypothesis) – that standardized precipitation and temperature anomalies exert statistically significant and spatially differentiated effects on yields; and H02 (persistence hypothesis) – that past yield levels have a positive, less-than-unit effect on current yields, reflecting structural inertia, technological capacity, and cumulative agronomic practices. The results confirm a strong and significant degree of yield persistence for wheat and barley, and a more moderate level for maize, supporting H2. Climatic factors play a key role across all crops, with one-standard-deviation increases in growing-season precipitation associated with substantial yield improvements. Meanwhile, positive temperature anomalies exert strongly negative effects, especially for maize, consistent with H1. Regional comparisons reveal a persistent north–south divide: the North-East region combines high yields with low volatility, whereas the South-West and South-Central regions exhibit lower productivity and markedly higher interannual variability. These findings underscore that climatic impacts are mediated by structural conditions such as soil quality, irrigation availability, and land consolidation. The study provides empirical evidence supporting the need for regionally differentiated agricultural policies within the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), combining long-term structural investments to strengthen production inertia with targeted climate-risk management measures.
Keywords: cereal yields, panel data, regional disparities, climate impact